President defines alumni roles Prof predicts lake levels about ex- duced by the institution, and plied to water levels, have made him the single most accurate forecaster of market, so why not the Great Salt Lake, he said. “One of the most exciting aspects of] my research and forecasting is that] chart reading techniques can be ap-| plied to other areas," Dr. Hawkins noted. 11- Serving as a guardian of integrity and quality in all that Great Salt Lake seven years. criticism from pected rainfall and evaporation rates tances. 9- Reacting directly ministrative decisions. to on the Great Salt Lake, but he is an expert at predicting changes in the stock market, and those same prin- ad- ciples of stock market forecasting, ap- 10- To critique materials pro- the institution undertakes. levels for the past perience 1- Encouraging outstanding students to attend the institution. There is a common misconseption that the only two roles alumni of a college should play in the affairs of the alma mater are (1) attending athletic events as spectators and (2) contributing to the institution financially. Unquestionably, both these roles are important, but they represent only a small sample of a potential which can be made by genuinely concerned alumni. As a basis for identifying the range of potential contributions which alumni can make, may we review the ultimate purpose of higher answer . - Fo eS s=s5 ar Ta an ERE sonnel as for college speakers at per- local events. 5- Employing graduates of the college where appropriate. 6- Encouraging prospective employers to consider hiring graduates of the college. 7Referring names of the school offers and (2) contribute to and public events sponsored by the college, AND of course, Both dimensions can be significant factors in the current operation of the institution. Examples of alumni contribution in those two areas include the following: EI 4- Arranging organizations, of education they experienced. SELL becoming active in alumni affairs throughout the country. A- Evaluation of the Educational Experience 1- Responding to direct inquiries such as opinion surveys and questionnaires. 2- Voluntarily indicating specific strengths and inadequacies of educational preparation. corporations to the college through (a) (c) deferred giving; (d) material contributions of land, teaching materials or items to be preserved. The foregoing listing is far more illustrative than exhaustive. Nevertheless, a common theme occurs the list: ALUMNI throughout INVOLVE- MENT IS MANY FACETED AND IS IMPORTANT. Dr. Hawkins has been alone in predicting high and low lake levels, and even though many are his 100 percent success shaken up a few profes- sionals. He said, "This has been a great in- tellectual challenge and a rewarding creative thought process.” ’ Dr. Hawkins said that most experts in the stock market espouse what is called the “Random reason for not Walk" making as the predictions. This theory basically says that market movement cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy because they on a depending randomly, jump number of variables that are equally as spontaneous. That same type of "Random Walk" model has been used in forecasting lake levels, he said, with just about the same amount of limited success. His idea uses trends, cycles and patterns of the past, applied to current movements, in a model that is sophisticated chart reading. He said, “Chart reading is based on the concept that historical patterns repeat themselves. is right there do not ac-| a workable] that if the . must be some | some difficulty in penetrating the ivy | halls," he added. Dr. Hawkins is predicting now that | the lake level will continue to rise through 1988-1990 and said that it though many are skeptical his 100% success ratio has shaken up a few professionals. skeptical, ratio has has _ received who "True principles have always had lake levels, and even 1977, he some @ Energy movements from the past reflect themselves in certain patterns and those patterns can be used in predicting the direction and distance of future movements." Dr. Hawkins, who is the author of the book, “You're a Genius; Creative has an 80 percent probability of hit-| ting the 4217 foot mark by then. There is an 80 percent chance the lake will reach the 4212 level by next year, he said. This year's high peaked in the first part of July at 4209.25 feet. He said, "The sewer plant in North| Salt Lake figures they can only operate to the 4210 mark, and what's going to happen to the airport. Their | elevation is 4226, but they are already pumping water out from] under the runways." Besides predicting lake levels Dr. 7 Hawkins has used chart reading to correctly forecast business cycles since the mid ‘70's and said he feels the approach has wide-spread ap- plication. Besides predicting lake levels Dr. Hawkins has used chart reading to correctly forecast business — cycles since the mid ‘70's and said he feels the approach has wide-spread application. He said, “These basic principles} represent viable tools for helping) managers analyze other data for mak-|ing business decisions. Who knows, | earthquake analysis and forecasting} might be a viable area for such application. It would be worth a try." Dr. Hawkins said he expects criticism for his theory and the way | Thinking Proves It," began lake level] he applies it, but plans to continue his |" predictions while he was doing research. | lished -be-pub soon-to his research for He said, "When form and style are | book titled “Random Walk Theory important than accuracy and | more random a n, afternoo Exploded.” One intellectual sterility has then truth about display a past walk took him The demise of academi over. taken WSC the in Lake the Great Salt our educational institu and freedom of chart a and Science Museum forecast to make ls easy an is tions eye. his caught historic lake levels is allowed to re-/ y philosoph a such chart the at looked "I stopped and ; ged." unchallen main y perfectl in fell it and noticed that and summer jobs for students and assisting with their evaluation. October 1984 or poten- general fund-raising drives; (b) specific fund-raising projects; 4- Attending alumni meetings to respond to specific program proposals. Weber State College COMMENT are 10- Attending athletic events as spectators, and 11- Contributing financially - evaluation purposes. internships foundations which tial donors to the college. 8- Identifying outstanding individuals as prospective faculty and staff members. 9- Attending performances 3- Serving on advisory boards and committees for specific 5- Providing has been alone in predicting high and low Since that merit to the way it's derived. sponsored by the institution and education--"to prepare individuals who will contribute to society while experiencing a high quality of life." Thus, as products of a particular institution of higher education, alumni are in an excellent position to (1) evaluate the educational experience perpetuating and extending the kind net Sag sea a2Ss aa 2- Contacting legislators and other public officials on behalf of the school. 3- Attending alumni events said cept chart reading as theory. But he noted Since 1977, Dr. Hawkins B- Perpetuation and Extension of the Educational Ex- He _ IUD: ministration opinions of aquain- by Dr. Rodney H. Brady President, Weber State College expert opinion and plotted out correct lake movements within a tenth of a foot. The idea works for the stock eee much charting against ieee ee know some went Ga he he OS does applying Bi nor ad- after methods, kere ts edie are | Some time later a student brought| him charts of the lake levels, and,| ig mance of emplyees who graduates. 8- Passing on to the the he} page 4 A gs perfor- in principles," Bea At stig Peirce) Calas see raN gl WNL successful a professor reading RE WSC department of marketing and finance, is really not a meteorologist, about Hawkins, chart PN school Dr. with said. a What does the stock market have in common with the Great Salt Lake? To most of us nothing, but if you're Dale Hawkins their rises and falls are amazingly similar. cepean, mae 6- Informing the school of changing professional needs and trends in relation to the educational experience being offered. 7- Giving feedback to the ee (Editor's note: This article was originally run in 1981, and is reprinted here at the request of President Brady because the information is still pertinent.)