Weber State College Comment, April 1986, page 11 | Prof says oil prices will stay down | hanks oil to a _ bust bubble, the in U.S. the and world economy is going to enjoy good times for the next four years, a college economist said. ‘We're in for one heck of great. economic time for the next four years,” said Dr. John Hoftyzer, an associate professor of economics. “I tell my students to enjoy the ride, I think we’re all in for a good a time.” Dr. Hoftyzer, an oil-economist, said { Dr. Hoftyzer said, “By 1981, Saudi Arabia was not selling all of its oil. By 1985, OPEC's share of world oil sales had fallen from 40 percent in 1979 to around 35 percent. To keep prices up, east. People literally could not spend the money fast enough. I saw people | OPEC had to cut back on production. “But the poor countries, like Nigeria, walking down the streets with suitcases said they could not afford to cut back, full of money.” The government started a tremendous modernization program that transformed Saudi Arabia from a Dr. Hoftyzer, who was teaching in Saudi Arabia at the time, said, ‘There was a tremendous shift of wealth at that time from the west to the middle desert country to one of sky scrapers, that even though the price of oil may rise a bit, he doubts it will go back to the levels of the past few years. “OPEC has now become a price freeways and huge building complexes . taker money. “They had billions in reserve,” he said, so they floated it in Europe in what is called petro-dollars.” Part of those petro-dollars were used to buy U.S. Treasury Bills and part went into banks as investments, he said. The banks, in order to get a fair instead of a price maker,” he said. The economist said that the price of oil would have dropped before now, but politics, especially those of the Carter years, encouraged high demands that kept prices high. He explained that the Iranian revolution of 1979 virtually closed down oil production in that country. Shortly after that the Iranian-Iraqi war broke out and Iraq also drastically cut oil production. The economist said that even though the United States is one of the biggest oil producers in the world, it is also the in a matter paid to of years. go to Students were | college, government salaries tripled, but still there was extra return on the vast amount of capital, loaned the money to countries, Mexico for example. These countries were given the money to develop their economies, but most used the funds to pay their oil bills. He said that if those countries now default on their loans, as is possible in biggest user and imports a great deal of the oil from the middle east. The sudden decrease in the amount poetic justice for the oil companies to be left holding the bag, but in reality of oil available caused prices to jump. But instead of letting the market adjust, President Jimmy Carter set ar- it’s American banks that would have to absorb the loss. Dr. Hoftyzer said that when Ronald Reagan came into office he deregulated | tificial limits on gas prices, people continued to consume large amounts of fuel and demand stayed the same. In addition, Carter decided to stock pile oil, thus increasing demand and playing right into the hands of the oil cartel. case of Mexico, it would seem the oil business and prices for the consumer jumped almost overnight. That, however, was a strong impetus to conservation in vehicles, homes and at offices, and it wasn’t long before demand for oil began to fall. so Saudi Arabia cut their production levels.” Eventually, he oid to continue modernization and raise their young before winter comes again. Relationships also need common values, goals and purpose. 4, Caring companionship: Swans fly through the skies of the earth together. The background of this painting is a cold winter forest, yet flying together there is a feeling of warmth and companionship. When one bird is removed or covered up, the other is left alone on a cold and harsh journey. Companionship, through both the trials and the joys, adds so much to life’s journey. 5. than Working together we are more either of us is individually, or, 1+1-=3: Working together the are able to hatch the eggs, against danger, and raise the Working together we are parents, safer and stronger as a Swans protect young. better couple. 6. Leadership is a gift of service, for the good of the flock: Leadership. may shift with individual strengths or familiarity with the territory. Leadership is respected most when it is for the good of the flock. Leadership is not the power to control or to punish, but rather the power to serve. 7. Followship and support is a gift to be respected and appreciated: Too often behavior is “Expected” versus “Appreciated.” Yet, all that is given in a relationship is a “Gift” and it should be recognized and treated as such. Dr. Chatelain’s presentation, which is meant to strengthen marriages and w families, is a delightful coordination of examples, stories and personal illustra- ' tions that teach these seven principles. The metaphor of the Trumpeter Swans helps individuals to remember the conicepts. In early presentations, Dr. Chatelain used the original painting, but participants were dissappointed that there was only the one. Knowing the benefit of having the painting hanging in his own home to remind him of the principles, he arranged with Jackson to make prints of the painting available. Gallery quality prints of the painting are available for $20 plus $5 for shipping and handling. Each 13” x 18” print is signed and comes with an audio tape of the presentation. Couples are able to listen to the taped presentation over and over until the principles are committed to. memory..When matted and framed to match your home decor, the Trumpeter Swans become a beautiful and powerful daily reminder of the Seven Essential Qualities of Successful Relationships. It also makes an ideal wedding gift. For information on getting a copy of ithe print and taped presentation, write ‘to: Dr. Randy Chatelain 2681 North 250 East Ogden, UT 84404 projects, and soon their newly aquired standard of living began to falter. Dr. Hoftyzer, who saw the recession in oil coming in 1983, said that six months ago Saudi Arabia upped production in an “every man for himself” attitude and the price war was on. “All this mass of money is not going to Saudi Arabia anymore,” he said. Dr. Hoftyzer said that he thinks the price of oil, which has dropped from $40 a barrel to about $12 (at the time this publication went to press), has pretty much bottomed out. He said, “I can't see it falling much further. The price of oil may get to $10 a barrel, but I can’t believe it will stay there. Most experts predict it will be around $15 for the next four to five years.” He continued, “If the price of gasoline goes down to 75 cents a gallon, inflation adjusted, that would be pre-1974 prices.” He noted, however, that if the U.S. fails to continue conservation movements, or if OPEC can “put itself back together” prices will move back up. “But OPEC never really was a very good cartel,” he said. “It just kind of happened naturally.” He said that over the years there will be swings in prices, but, if left alone, the market will make those shifts less and less pronounced. He said, ‘The energy sections of Utah will be hurt and it will be tough on the oil companies, but in the final analysis the open market will be fairly efficient for the overall economy.” Continued from page 1. 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