6. Kahn, Peck that the Japanese steel output in 1975 is more likely to be close to 130 million tons rather than the 150 million tons set by MITI as a goal for the Japanese industry. Privately some of the heads of Japanese steel companies will confess that they feel that the MITI goal is unrealistic. They foresee bottlenecks that cannot be overcome by that time in the way of skilled labor, mobilization of capital, a possible shortage of power stemming out of Japan's new concern for pollution, and the uncertainty of lining up coking coal supplies at reasonable costs to match the iron ore which is more readily available to achieve the targeted figure. I anticipate that the Japanese steel industry will still grow faster than that of any other major industrial country but that the rate of growth will be less than that sought by MITI and supported by two of the smaller steel companies. While we would obviously rather see expansion at the higher rate, our plans and expectations have been based on the lower rate of expansion, and we feel that this will provide us with all the market we need at satisfactory prices. From our standpoint our most important new development will be centered around coking coal and here there is every indication that there is a world-wide shortage of coking coal. We may very well elect to place this coal in European markets even at realizations below those that we could obtain from Japan. Our standing with the Japanese steel industry is very high and we are the only major supplier to the Japanese steel industry that has never failed them, and we have been doing business with them since about 1947. The question of our growth expectations for the period after 1973 is obviously more difficult to answer, and I am not prepared to answer it in terms of specific projects that can be identified with certainty at this time. Increased earnings after 1974