5. commitments. Blackwater and Goonyella will be operating for the full year with their capacities simultaneously being expanded. Peak Downs, a new mine in which Utah Development Company has an 85% interest, is expected to begin shipments during the fourth quarter of 1972. From the combined coking coal operations we believe that Japanese buyers will take their contract quantities of 5. 892 million tons and part of the additional 5% on which they have an option. European buyers in six countries are expected to buy 1. 23 million tons. If these forecasts are realized Utah's share of coking coal shipments in 1972 will be around 7. 2 million tons compared to the 2. 9 86 million tons in 1971. Others may experience a decline in coking coal sales but Utah's problem is producing the coal to meet our sales expectations. Industrial peace will be necessary to meet our targets. Steam coal deliveries from our Navajo Mine in New Mexico are dependent upon the operating rate of the five generating stations at the mine site and the amount of down time on these plants for maintenance or adjustment. Based on the present planning of our utility customers we anticipate 1972 deliveries will approximate the 6. 811 million tons delivered in 1971. We also anticipate higher earnings from iron ore, although here the increase will be more modest. Iron Springs will be down but Goldsworthy anticipates a modest increase in shipments and profits. Marcona has enjoyed labor peace since last July and with this condition prevailing production, shipments, and profits should show an improvement over 1971. However Marcona is under relatively more pressure from its customers, for its contracts are of shorter duration and the steel industry, whether in the United States, Japan or Europe, is far from optimistic about its 1972 prospects. With Shirley Basin operations back to normal and with Lucky Mc operating in higher grade ore we expect to ship 4. 688 million pounds of uranium oxide in 1972 against 2. 963 million pounds in 1971, an increase of 58. 2%. Prices will also be modestly higher, and the combination of higher prices and larger shipments is expected to cause a substantial increase in uranium earnings. The outlook for copper in the immediate future is not encouraging. The slow pace of industrial activity in 1971 curtailed the growth rate of copper consumption below the long term trend and substantial new production capacity was added. Strikes in the United States, Zambia, and Peru and the Chilian takeovers held down inventory accumulations but the copper price continues under pressure. Granted some economic recovery in 1972, the best estimates available to us indicate that demand can be met with a mining rate of around 89-90% of indicated world capacity. While Utah has had no request from its Japanese steel industry customers for reduced deliveries of coking coal in 1972, we have been asked by our Japanese copper customers, along with all shippers of concentrate, if we would agree to a modification of shipping schedules and smelter charges. We have not agreed and in any renegotiation of the contracts